Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 11.237391 13.782931 16.627107 20.019544 23.933935 28.286951 33.471022
2026-01-11 7.719995 10.986236 15.050614 20.387321 27.110436 35.196708 45.546029
2026-01-18 5.864748 9.409413 14.208197 20.977559 30.057925 41.584388 57.060430
2026-01-25 4.366369 7.848837 12.944900 20.605891 31.450605 45.849007 65.948350
2026-02-01 3.462191 6.899957 12.289270 20.844011 33.507342 50.943364 76.047192
2026-02-08 2.659750 5.897043 11.336954 20.442978 34.507573 54.540318 84.210515
2026-02-15 2.018890 4.996884 10.363147 19.823150 35.036825 57.401250 91.395677
2026-02-22 1.698756 4.613684 10.177373 20.400430 37.369654 62.928398 102.551609
2026-03-01 1.332735 4.029772 9.522858 20.086346 38.228035 66.265725 110.638743
2026-03-08 1.079898 3.618430 9.111372 20.120324 39.608685 70.415423 120.050987
2026-03-15 0.804044 3.054353 8.286822 19.286796 39.439016 72.107856 125.793008
2026-03-22 0.683895 2.858270 8.190793 19.794228 41.575023 77.511140 137.377713
2026-03-29 0.551526 2.592173 7.926250 20.010363 43.336375 82.599739 149.023643
2026-04-05 0.450068 2.380499 7.750753 20.392993 45.443469 88.397227 162.097014
2026-04-12 0.376173 2.227421 7.683945 20.984451 47.962244 94.982854 176.663799
2026-04-19 0.280984 1.937240 7.201151 20.612763 48.621778 98.435035 186.287122
2026-04-26 0.224681 1.770784 7.008702 20.850950 50.452716 103.958321 199.466308
2026-05-03 0.164510 1.537320 6.566501 20.449813 50.976943 107.202243 208.967187
2026-05-10 0.114895 1.306806 6.065635 19.829821 50.991443 109.514501 216.959312
2026-05-17 0.095078 1.235963 6.053621 20.407253 53.502460 116.411627 232.926564
2026-05-24 0.067936 1.079514 5.709889 20.093087 54.107352 119.844694 243.064498
2026-05-31 0.050753 0.973417 5.511229 20.127074 55.448797 124.678645 255.758896
2026-06-07 0.031601 0.805456 5.020233 19.293326 54.818386 125.775059 261.944951